The NFL draft is an endless source of speculation, and--for better or worse--this blog has missed the majority of opportunities to contribute. Before the Combine, there's game tape to review. After the Combine, there are measurables to enumerate. Before the draft, there's free-agency to look at. Now that the draft is over, there's time to review and reflect on this draft:
Defensive Linemen
As a Stanford Post-Doctoral Fellow and graduate student, I was happy to see fellow Stanford Cardinal John Lynch, GM San Francisco 49'ers, make one of the cagiest trades in a long time. After a fury of draft rumors about Trubisky going to the 49'ers, the Bears lost their minds and traded not just the 1st round/#3 pick but also a 3rd and 4th round pick, and a 3rd round pick in the 2018 draft to move up one slot and attempt to fill their major need at Quarterback. In doing so, the 49'ers were subsequently able to move into the 1st round with another trade with the Seahawks in exchange for a pick gained from the Bears. This was brilliant, because the 49'ers have substantially beefed up a Defense that was 32nd in the League.
Solomon Thomas, DL (Stanford)
Reuben Foster, LB (Alabama)
Ahkello Witherspoon, CB (Colorado)
D. J. Jones, DL (Ole Miss)
Pita Taumoepenu, DL (Utah)
First off, a good friend of mine (and fellow Stanford football fanatic) was shocked that Solomon Thomas was selected 3rd. He suspected top-10, because of his skill/technique. I'm not even a little bit surprised because of the team needs (especially for a team like the 49'ers). The defensive line can affect the second level and the secondary more than the linebackers and secondary will affect the defensive line. This is because pass-rushing and run blocking set the tempo of the play and anchor the defense.
Let me make the case for you on why Solomon Thomas (moreso than Myles Garrett, Jonathan Allen, or Taco Charlton) was the best defensive lineman in the draft.
Myles Garrett, DL (Texas A&M)
Myles Garrett is an athletic freak, and nobody can take that away from him. With respect to measurables, he's 6'4" and 272lbs. 33 reps of 225lbs in the bench press, 41" vertical, and 10'8" broad jump. He's clearly strong and is incredibly explosive.
Posted excellent numbers throughout his college career at Texas A&M with 31 total sacks and 47 tackles for loss.
However, take a look at his combine video.
Take a long hard look at the end of the 1st 40 yd dash he runs and also the 2nd 40 yd dash. His arm movement is suggestive of an unexpected lack of coordination, because there's almost no arm swing and mostly up-and-down pumping at the bicep level. This makes for 2 stumbles over a very short distance. Defensive linemen don't necessarily need to be able to run 40-yds since it's not very far to get to the quarterback. However, this issue with coordination is magnified during the position drills. Pay close attention to his foot work, he has a few little stumbles, spends most of his time staring at his feet, exhibits poor lateral movement on account of being a little heavy on the leading foot in either direction, and then runs with an extraordinarily wide base for straight-line running and feet that are approaching pigeon-toed. His arm strength and technique is excellent, but never forget leg day. Or in this case. Never forget you have legs.
Looking deeper into the data, 4.5 of his 8.5 sacks this year came against UT San Antonio. He posted 2 against a solid Auburn squad, but he also had 6 games without a sack. It's the same story with 2015: 2 sacks against Arizona State and 3.5 sacks against Nevada. These are clearly lesser opponents. This isn't quite the same as reaching the quarterback against LSU or Alabama. Statistics have the opportunity to lie worse than a persian rug. A better way to do overall ratings and penalize game-statistics is to use a form of an Elo rating, but that's for another day (and potentially a major project overall).
Jonathan Allen, DL (Alabama)
Considered a possible #2 pick. Jonathan Allen was incredibly productive at Alabama: 44.5 tackles for loss, 28.0 sacks (2016: 10.5; 2015: 12.0). With sacks against big teams: 2 v. USC, 1 v. Tennessee, 1 v. Texas A&M, 1 v. LSU, 1.5 v. Florida, 1 v. UW, 1 v. Clemson, the quality of his sacks is probably better than Garrett. Additionally, in terms of measurables, he's a large man at 6'3" and 286 lbs. Having said that, for a man this size to only put up 21 reps of 225lbs is troubling (comparable to many of the top end running backs he needs to be stopping: Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette). I don't believe that bench press is absolutely critical for a running back, but the running back should not be matching a defensive lineman rep for rep.
In the combine drills, he was somewhat underwhelming in terms of athleticism, but his technique is excellent. Allen runs with an arched back and head up while keeping his hips back. This means, unfortunately, that he comes up too quickly in the 40. Howevn the position drills, he moves laterally well but you can feel the ground shake as he plants his feet.
I don't think anyone would accuse him of being nimble; Jay Gruden may want to send him to the Washington Ballet in the off season.
Solomon Thomas, DL (Stanford
Solomon Thomas is extraordinarily athletic with excellent technique and body awareness. He has been a cornerstone of the Stanford defense with 12 sacks and 24.5 tackles for loss in just 2 years. Moreover, it's comforting that Solomon Thomas' numbers haven't just been the result of one big game, though Stanford-Notre Dame made up 20% of his total tackles. With respect to measurables, there have been complaints about his length and size and his ability to play inside. I suspect that he will end up being a 5-technique edge rusher in the 4-3 49'ers defense. However, watching the Sun Bowl against UNC, it became pretty clear that Solomon Thomas played larger than his size on account of his athleticism. His quickness and mobility gave #2 draft pick Mitchell Trubisky fits, though it only resulted in 1 sack.
The things I like about Solomon Thomas' technique is that he's moving with his head up and with a forward lean at the Stanford pro day. Also, look at the speed of his feet. There's a little stumble, but really very impressive. Especially in comparison to the above two:
Finally, in much of his film, he has a grace that other players his size very much lack.
Nobody is going to pretend that the 49'ers are going to be any good next year, but the genius of trading the 2nd pick to the Bears for multiple picks speaks very well to the future of the 49'ers organization.
My Patriots didn't really have any picks in this draft... so not much to say about that.
Coming up on Draft Analysis...
NFL Draft Analysis: Part 2 -- Quarterbacks
NFL Draft Analysis: Part 3 -- Running backs
