Anyway. Odd penchants for binge eating aside, we're talking about running the football. There are a few really nice things about the way the modern game of football has developed and the running backs in the current draft class fit in exceedingly well to a variety of schemes. For one, as the game has become increasingly pass-oriented, there has been a shift towards nickel defenses (that's a defensive back field with 5 backs; the 5th guy being the nickelback). If you have 5 defensive backs, then there will either be 3 down linemen and 3 linebackers, or you have 4 down linemen and 2 linebackers. In either situation, there are 6 defensive players in the box, and that means the offense may be able to take advantage of double teams in the run game. The other way to look at this is that a running back who can catch out of the backfield or can go into the slot will easily be able to step in and augment the pass game
Christian McCaffrey (Stanford, RB) Christian McCaffrey was one of my favorite players of the entire college football season, and is the player I'm most excited to watch play in the NFL. A friend who used to play wide receiver on the Stanford Football team has only great things to say about the kid's work ethic, attitude, and leadership. These are some of the qualities that are sometimes overlooked as we found out when some folks plagued by off-the-field antics still got drafted, though perhaps not quite as high as they otherwise would have been.
Much has been made of McCaffrey's speed (40yd dash @4.48), but in a flat out horse race he isn't quite as fast as the Panther's 2nd round pick, Curtis Samuel (40yd dash
Christian McCaffrey has two qualities that make him really standout: he's nimble (AF as the kids say these days) and he has great rhythm. Watch him doing position drills, and you'll notice that he is incredibly light on his feet with good knees and really great foot speed.
This contributes greatly to his ability to change directions as evidenced by his incredible 3-cone drill (6.57 seconds) and 60yd shuttle (11.03 seconds): McCaffrey was far-and-away the top performer in both of these. By comparison, Joe Williams, who ran 4.41 in the 40 posted a time of 7.19 seconds in the 3-cone drill. This is infinitely more important than straight line speed. Straight line speed is of value when the back is in the open field, and in that situation your running back is trying to outrun a linebacker or safety. This match up is less about speed as it is about anticipation and making the defensive player miss. The difference between a 4.3 and a 4.48 in the 40 is negligible.
In each of these plays, the element that makes Christian McCaffrey so devastating is his elusiveness. It's the quick stutter stepping as he waits for the defensive player to commit before turning on a dime. Once he's out in the open field, this kind of running is what you would expect of any half-decent running back. Getting the defenders to miss. That's something special. It'll be harder at the top level when very fit linebackers will be able to move and make arm tackles that bring down a somewhat undersized running back, but only time will tell how it plays out.
Finally, McCaffrey's ability to catch out of the backfield gives him the opportunity to be an additional weapon for the Panthers who appear to run a variety of QB counter, QB power-read, and QB Buck Sweep. With Cam Newton, an athletic running quarterback who was the key feature of the Auburn QB Power-Read (rushing for nearly 1500 yards and 20 touchdowns), I'm excited to see how they take advantage of McCaffrey's versatility. In a Buck Sweep, the linebackers have to go with the threat of the pass to McCaffrey who is motioning out allowing the pulling guards to get to the second level to block for Newton. This is going to be something.
Leonard Fournette (LSU, RB) Fournette is a traditional workhorse running back. He is someone who can carry the ball through contact and has the physical size to withstand a beating. Allegedly. With the nagging ankle injuries, no amount of size is going to fix that, though, and this is one of the reasons I am not as big a fan of Fournette as I am of McCaffrey. With ankle issues, will he still be able to cut and spin his way between the tackles running it up the gut? Or bouncing it outside? Having had a number of ankle issues myself when I was younger, the feeling of instability running the curve in a 200m or worse the seemingly interminable turns on the indoor track gives me some pause when considering him as the top running back in this draft class.
The ankle issues and potentially some weight problems represent two of the largest problems that teams faced in evaluating his draftability. While some people like to see that he was able to drop 12 pounds between the NFL combine (March 1st: Medical Examinations for Group 3: running backs) and the LSU pro-day (April 5th). That's 12 pounds in approximately 5 weeks; assuming that it's all fat (and it probably isn't), then that would be a calorie deficit of 1200 per day. This shows great discipline, but my question is why didn't he show the discipline going into the combine since that had the potential to be a major concern? With a lot of money on the line, most people would be motivated to lose weight. Just look at The Biggest Loser. The problem with this rapid weight loss is the metabolic derangement as a result and the tendency to regain all the weight. This is not to say that Leonard Fournette's weight loss is bad. It's just to say that if weight is an issue, then yo-yoing is not the solution. Moreso than for The Biggest Loser contestants, this may be more an issue of discipline.
Despite these issues, Fournette's game tape is excellent. He has incredible speed for such a large guy (240lbs, 4.51 in the 40yd dash), though his explosiveness left something to be desired with a meager 28.5" in the vertical jump.
Fournette's ability to cut is solid, but it's really his ability to run through contact and force missed tackles (or rather run through defenders) makes him look a lot like Marshawn Lynch. Whether he'll have the same success with this strategy in the NFL is up in the air. NFL linebackers won't be pushed over easily, though the violence with which Fournette runs may force some of defenders to lay down and play dead.Projected to be the top RB taken in the #NFLDraft...@_Fournette's @LSUFootball Pro Day highlights! https://t.co/ER7AIRvRe1— NFL (@NFL) April 5, 2017
Samaje Perine (Oklahoma, RB) I thought about discussing Dalvin Cook (another extraordinarily elusive running back who is great at running through contact and forcing missed tackles), but I wanted to highlight a running back who can run up the gut but also may be great when it comes to pass pro.In a pass oriented game, the fact the Samaje Perine is bringing you both of these elements is critical. Here's a guy who is 230 pounds and can bench press 225lbs, i.e. his weight, 30 times. As discussed above, bench press is a lot more important for a lineman than a running back, but if you're tasked with slowing down an edge rusher, then it may be slightly more important. This may be the guy who can actually slow down a Myles Garrett or Jonathan Allen.
Whether he'll be able to run in a typical zone scheme is uncertain especially if he's trying to bend it back or bounce outside against the nimbler linebackers that he'll be encountering in the NFL (especially in comparison to what he saw in the Big-12--Sorry, guys), but he is definitely a guy who can drive the pile and carry the ball in a downhill power scheme. Looking forward to seeing how he develops!
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